Electoral
District
|
Predicted
Party
|
Margin
|
Notes
|
| Abbotsford-Clayburn |
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Abbotsford-Mount Lehman
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Alberni-Qualicum
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
NDP saved their butts in time
when their previous candidate resigned. Scott Fraser ran federally and
should be able to out-do Trumper providing that the Greens have a lid
kept on top of them.
|
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Burnaby-Edmonds
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
|
Burnaby North
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
Best wishes to Matt.
|
Burnaby-Willingdon
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
|
Burquitlam
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
Will be a difficult contest
|
Cariboo North
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Cariboo South
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Chilliwack-Kent
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Chilliwack-Sumas
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Columbia River-Revelstoke
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
|
Comox Valley
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
If the Libs didn't run with Stan
Hagen, they would be dead. Comox/Courtneay is a fairly liberal
area, but Hagen's got enough appeal to pull it through again.
Comox hospital was conspicuously untouched after 2001, compared to
Delta!
|
Coquitlam-Maillardville
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
|
Cowichan-Ladysmith
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
Delta North
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
This would have been a more
difficult seat for the Liberals if it wasn't for the fact that the NDP
candidate basically sued his way into the nomination.
|
Delta South
|
Independent
|
Tight
|
Vicki Huntington nearly got in
on a recall campaign in 2002 - 9999 valid signatures were
collected. This makes this contest interesting, considering that
you had about 21000 voters in the previous election of which 14600
voted BC Liberal. The NDP is not getting more than 25% of the
vote and I suspect that Vicki Huntington has been cannabalizing the
vote of the NDP. The Greens are not going to fare nearly as well
as they did in the previous election. If you assume that
Huntington (who is a councillor that got a decent amount of the popular
vote) sucks up 5000 votes from Roddick, it means she has a serious
chance of winning. This coupled with the general distaste for the
BC Liberals over the years could put Vicki up on top. I'm going
to go out on a limb here and say that Huntington gets elected.
|
East Kootenay
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Esquimalt-Metchosin
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
The real question is whether BC
Marijuana party leader Marc Emery will get more than 5% of the vote
since Rich Coleman is virtually guaranteed his seat. You'll get a
lot of 'joke' voters that would otherwise vote for the NDP voting for
Emery as some sort of protest.
|
Kamloops
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Kamloops-North Thompson
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
|
Kelowna-Lake Country
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Kelowna-Mission
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Langley
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Mary Polak lost in
Surrey-Panorama Ridge, but she'll win here, a very conservative riding.
|
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
Tom Morino will give it a good
shot, but will probably come in third behind the Libs and NDP.
|
Maple Ridge-Mission
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
|
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
Single issue riding - Pitt River
Bridge.
|
Nanaimo
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
Nanaimo-Parksville
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Nelson-Creston
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Corky Evans has a lot of name
appeal.
|
New Westminster
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
Only reason why this was tight
was because the Greens nominated somebody with half a name.
Otherwise, it's going to be a contest of Joyce Murray losing her seat
rather than the NDP winning theirs.
|
North Coast
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
North Island
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
North Vancouver-Seymour
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Ida Chong is probably the only
safe seat in Vancouver Island.
|
Okanagan-Vernon
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Okanagan-Westside
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Peace River North
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Peace River South
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Penticton-Okanagan Valley
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
|
Port Moody-Westwood
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Christy Clark's old riding is
safe.
|
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
|
Green
|
Tight
|
The most interesting race in the
province. I'm guessing Adriane Carr will win with about 40% of
the vote, as long as Gordon Wilson isn't running. Notice how the
BC Liberals have done zero campaigning in this riding? That's
intentional, to let Carr in the legislature.
|
Prince George-Mount Robson
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
Paul Nettleton's going to get a
first-hand lesson on why he should have supported BC-STV.
|
Prince George North
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Prince George-Omineca
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
People actually have jobs in
this area, for the first time in ages.
|
Richmond Centre
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
A prediction for my home riding:
Ilich (BCL) 56, Jackaman (NDP) 36, Segers (GRN) 6, Healy (BCM) 2
|
Richmond East
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Richmond-Steveston
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Saanich North and the Islands
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
The real question is how much of
the vote the Green party will split with the NDP.
|
Saanich South
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
How much of the vote can the
Greens split? Enough to let the Liberals win this seat.
|
Shuswap
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Skeena
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
|
Surrey-Cloverdale
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Kevin Falcon's riding
|
Surrey-Green Timbers
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
Surrey-Newton
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Daniel Igali is running here for
the BC Liberals, but he will lose by more than a 5% margin. His
"star candidate" lustre ran out five seconds after he was on the news.
|
Surrey-Panorama Ridge
|
NDP
|
Tight
|
Jagrup Brar is facing much
tougher competition in Bob Hans, but I think the experience of running
in the byelection is really going to pay off for him here. The
area still hasn't developed enough (although it's a fast growing part
of BC) to cost him the election - yet.
|
Surrey-Tynehead
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
Surrey-Whalley
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Elayne Brenzinger (MLA) is
running here for the DRBC, but she won't have a chance.
|
Surrey-White Rock
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Second safest seat in the
province for the BC Liberals.
|
Vancouver-Burrard
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
One of the ridings to
watch. Despite the fact that the mayor (Larry Campbell) has
openly critcised Mayencourt, the problem for the NDP here is that the
Green party has a semi-competent candidate running. The real
killer for the NDP candidate is that the Vancouver-Burrard area has
undergone a HUGE amount of growth since the last election and the
people that have moved into those condominiums are less likely to vote
NDP. This is going to be a really close battle, however.
|
Vancouver-Fairview
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Vote splitting with the Greens
should make Greene comfortable.
|
Vancouver-Fraserview
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
BC Liberals have been pouring a
lot of resources into this riding to get Wally Oppal elected. It
will be close, but he should be able to get elected.
|
Vancouver-Hastings
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Joy McPhail's former riding
|
Vancouver-Kensington
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
Vancouver-Kingsway
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Glen Clark's former riding
|
Vancouver-Langara
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Carole Taylor's safe seat.
|
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Jenny Kwan's riding will be the
easiest win, next to Victoria-Beacon Hill.
|
Vancouver-Point Grey
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
As much bad press as there's
been about Campbell's own campaign in his riding, he should win by more
than 5% of the vote.
|
Vancouver-Quilchena
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
Colin Hansen's riding is
probably the safest in the province.
|
Victoria-Beacon Hill
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
Carole James' riding, Jeff Bray
should have seen the writing on the wall years ago unless if he's
setting himself up for a plush government appointment somewhere.
|
Victoria-Hillside
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
West Kootenay-Boundary
|
NDP
|
Easy
|
|
West Vancouver-Capilano
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
|
West Vancouver-Garibaldi
|
BC Liberal
|
Easy
|
The real question is how well
the Green candidate can do here - the issue of expanding highway 99 at
Eagleridge is quite a hot issue.
|
Yale-Lillooet
|
BC Liberal
|
Tight
|
I can't see Lali winning here.
|