Double Blind

Here is a first-pass projection of seats when I read my tea leaves… note this is not my “final” projection – I need to tweak my models a bit further. There are a lot of regional and sub-regional dynamics.

Format:
Province – CON / LIB / NDP / BQ / Other
BC – 23 / 2 / 11 / 0 / 0
Alberta – 27 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1
Saskatchewan – 12 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0
Manitoba – 9 / 0 / 5 / 0 / 0
Ontario – 60 / 18 / 28 / 0 / 0
Quebec – 5 / 3 / 43 / 23 / 1
New Brunswick – 6 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 0
Nova Scotia – 3 / 3 / 5 / 0 / 0
PEI – 2 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 0
Newfoundland and Labrador – 3 / 2 / 2 / 0 / 0
Territories – 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0
Totals: 151 / 33 / 99 / 23 / 2

Again, this is a draft model. I will attempt to have a “final” projection out by Sunday.

I will be making an election projection for the 2011 Canadian Election – I will likely post it around Saturday or Sunday.

The 2008 Election Prediction Results are here, with an absolute seat error of 36.

The 2006 Election prediction (prediction, results) is linked, with an absolute seat error of 24.

Every pundit in the country is trying to ask themselves the question – “what is the impact of the NDP surge on the overall seat count?”. Because of my rather intensive involvement in this election campaign I haven’t had too much time to focus on the national numbers, but I will be able to give it more attention later this week.

Those people that watch the first 15 minutes of political theater in the House of Commons known as Question Period will probably recognize what went on in the last English leader’s debate – it was a repeat performance.

By not losing, Stephen Harper wins.

Also, the more the media raises expectations on the debates, the lower the potential impact. These performances are so well scripted by the major party leaders that it renders what happens on television nearly useless. I did not catch it live, but when reviewing the video (mainly having the audio spewing in the background while I do some real work on the computer), it was a two hour snooze-fest that was utterly identical to all of the other political mud-flinging that our federal political system seems to have descended into.

Media enforces political correctness, which makes sure that candidates that have off-politically correct (or party-correct) thoughts on issues will never reveal them since they will be more strongly punished for those thoughts than rewarded. Unless if there is some sort of decentralization of party branding in the political system, I don’t foresee this changing any time soon.

From CKNW:

“Time of day” toll discounts are coming to the Golden Ears Bridge.

It’s a six week pilot project that starts April 15th. The 30% discount will apply from 7:00 pm until 5:59 am, Monday through Thursday evenings, all weekend beginning at 7:00 pm Friday and on statutory holidays.

The test will cover the Easter and may long weekends.

Just this past weekend, Delta Mayor Lois Jackson took aim at the Golden Ears, saying the number of vehicles using the span has never met expectations.

They are finally getting the message that variable pricing is the way to go with bridge tolling. They will be able to obtain more revenues this way than by having one flat-fee based option. They just need to stick to a consistent theme and not mess around with it too much – a temporary 6-week promotion may not generate enough data to be meaningful.

I suggested this back in May of 2010. Should I send these guys an invoice for one hour of consulting service?

I also suspect that taking 30% off the price is about 20% too small. It is much easier to promote “Half price after 7pm, and all of Saturday and Sunday” than “30% off after 7pm”.