Double Blind

Prime Minister Stephen Harper had an interview with Reuters.

The political calculus in Canada is quite interesting for the second half.

The Conservatives only want an election if they have a reasonable chance of a majority government; otherwise status quo is good enough. Polling would indicate that a majority government is unlikely.

The Bloc Quebecois are always ready to fight, and don’t stand to gain or lose much in a federal election. They will be seen as opposing the Conservatives no matter what, so they are the most predictable force in the House of Commons.

The NDP are gearing up for an autumn campaign. Despite supporting the government in 2009′s summer debacle where the Liberals proclaimed “Harper, your time is up”, the NDP saved the country from another election – this was even despite the fact that their own messaging before this event was roughly “We are the real opposition and the only party to vote against the Conservatives”. NDP polling numbers have edged up slightly, but seemingly not enough to make a “breakthrough” into serious opposition territory – roughly 60 seats needed from their 37 present before they can even consider getting into official opposition. The NDP’s only issue is that a good chunk of these seats are in Conservative territory, except in Montreal, which makes the NDP’s only real viable expansion in Montreal.

The Liberals are in the grey zone. Their polling is quite weak except in the usual territories (Toronto, Montreal) although they seemed to have bottomed out in their core Central Canada urban constituencies. Ignatieff knows that if he doesn’t “win” the election (i.e. forming government) he is likely on his way out as party leader. So in the meantime, it is in his best interests to stall, although the rest of the party is negotiating behind his back various scenarios, including a coalition with the NDP.

Inevitably, an election for the second half of this year is up to the Liberals. It is unlikely the NDP will back down from a non-confidence motion in the house, unlike their very hypocritical move in 2009.

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