President Obama
Posted in Politics on November 3rd, 2008 by Sacha PeterMy quick prediction for the Presidential election is that Obama is going to win, and it will be a comfortable margin of victory – about 311 to 227. Because of an expected wide (wider than this prediction) margin of victory, you don’t see the pro-Obama media talk about voter fraud or anything of that ilk, unlike 2004. I’d almost be curious to see the reaction (voter fraud accusations) if McCain actually managed to win the election, but this won’t happen.
I think the polls are skewed toward Obama, mainly because people over the telephone (and other methods) would publicly reveal supporting him, while it’s politically “incorrect” to support the Republicans, so less people would mention that. As such, McCain should do slightly better than expected in most of the close swing states.
Swing State Predictions:
McCain should win Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota.
Obama should win Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia.
The rest of the states are obvious.
In order for McCain to win, he would need to “steal” Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, which is not going to happen. There is an obscure scenario where there can be a tied election if McCain takes Ohio, Virginia and Colorado (269 vs 269), but this will not happen. Alternatively, another McCain victory would be Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico, but this won’t happen as well.
So there is no way McCain will win this election.
Who would be the better President
People have asked me who would make the better president, and my answer to them is none. Obama (along with the Democratic congress) will clearly will take the US down a communist path, while McCain would clearly continue to “big government” largess that got the Republicans into trouble in the first place.
Somebody will have to pay for this, and the middle class of America is going to continue to get squeezed – either you cozy up to the government and get your tax loopholes, or you get in the bottom tier and stop paying income taxes and start living on the state (like many are currently doing). The third solution is to take your capital out of the country and just watch the carnage ensue.
Thankfully in Canada we have a little more common sense (unless if you live in Toronto), but we’re going to take an awful amount of collateral damage when the Obama administration starts reviewing our trade agreements and start to stick it to us for us having a more economically successful country than themselves.
Nobody is going to win this election, and nobody other than entrenched bureaucrats will win when the government goes down a path of communism. The idea of running a successful economy is increasing the size of the economic pie, rather than redistributing it “fairly”. What happens is that the people producing the wealth will stop doing so when they realize that their efforts aren’t rewarded sufficiently – which is what high taxes do.
Note I have no economic stake in the outcome of this election. Obama’s trading at 89% which I think is fair value.
“People have asked me who would make the better president, and my answer to them is none.”
I noticed that FumbledMumblings has also answered ‘none of the above’ (he seems to be supporting the Libertarian party this time around).
Either Obama and-or Plouffe and-or Axelrod has clearly demonstrated high levels of managerial and executive competence through the primaries and general election … and I am guessing that all three will continue into Obama’s first administration.
“Obama (along with the Democratic congress) will clearly will take the US down a communist path”
No offense, but you’re starting to sound a bit loony here. And in the comment on Toronto as well.
The only electoral result that would be ideal for America is divided government. History has clearly shown that anytime a single party controls all three branches of government that you see government expansion faster than the big bang. This happened with Bush from 2000-2006 and is virtually guaranteed to happen to Obama from 2008-2010/2012.
There’s only one way to be paying for this, and it is completely guaranteed that tax rates and collections are going to be increasing in America.
As for Toronto, that comment was loony, but clearly right now in this country people in deeply urbanized centres are much more socialist than suburban or rural counterparts. I know Toronto is a big place so this comment doesn’t apply for the WHOLE metropolitan centre, but that was the jist of my point.
Oh, note that McCain won’t be any better either – just that tax increases will probably be half of that compared to what Obama will do.
Finally, probably the most ideal president that could come out of this election would be a “veto machine” that would veto every piece of legislation coming out of congress.
The US congress for the past 10 years (this includes both Republican and Democratic stints) have had some real idiots running the show.