Upgraded to WordPress 2.5.1

Posted in Site Admin on May 19th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

I finally took the plunge and upgraded to WordPress 2.5.1. They completely changed the writer’s interface and I must say it will take some getting used to.

Some of the changes they made I took quite some exception to, mainly that the path it takes to actually get a post out is hindered somewhat by not having everything on a single screen – I now have to scroll down to mark which category I want this post attached to, or whether I want this post done in the future.

I guess I shouldn’t have touched something that worked so well.

Update: I have edited the RSS feed footer – this got upgraded by default and the last thing I want to be doing is spamming the readers for Digg or Reddit “hits”.

Hillary Clinton to drop by the end of June

Posted in Commentary on May 17th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

I’ve taken a significant stake anticipating that Hillary Clinton will not formally drop from competing for the US presidency by the end of June 2008.

This one has quite a bit of risk since the market suggested as high as an 86% chance that she will drop by the end of June, but I believe this is a significant over-estimate.

As such, I have risked $665.60 for the potential reward of $3,046.90 that Hillary Clinton will continue fighting to become the US president by the end of June.

There is a bunch of political calculus here, but it essentially revolves around the fact that she doesn’t have much to lose at this point by going to convention and forcing the issue with Superdelegates that she is more probable at this point to win the election than Obama if she won the Democratic nomination.

I’m now of the opinion that Obama will likely take it and that the chances for an “Al Gore” scenario is dropping significantly, but there is still a chance that some hell will be raised between now and then. There is also the unresolved issue of the Michigan and Florida delegates (which are currently slated to not being seated at the convention).

Essentially by staying in, Clinton has a call option which expires at the day of convention, but this call option is deeply out of the money. However, if she drops now, she will forfeit that option, which still has value.

If I lose this one, it’s a risk I think was very well taken. If I win it, then it’s another feather on my cap.

Proposed upgrade of BC Place a good plan

Posted in Commentary on May 16th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

I seem to be quoting a lot of BC Government press releases lately.

They finally came to a decision on the future of BC Place. This is a very sane proposal, with incremental upgrades performed on the stadium before the 2010 olympics, and after they will get rid of the roof and replace it with a skydome-style mechanism.

They will also fund this with sales of land around the stadium, which will inevitably turn into high density development (extending the downtown core further into the eastside). There will likely be some industrial zoning as well since the Vancouver municipality is rather sensitive to the issue of packing a trillion people into the downtown core without leaving enough space for them to work.

Replacing the roof before 2010 would have been an unimaginably risky decision and the government smartly decided not to roll the dice on this one. I wouldn’t have either. While the roof will look less than stellar for the Olympics (I recall noticing how mucky the dome looks when inside the stadium after the Sun Run, especially when you contrast it with the triangle segment that was replaced when the roof ripped out), it will do – after all, this will be from February 12 to 28 in Vancouver and it is guaranteed to be raining.

I wonder if it is possible to “bleach” or otherwise whiten the roof from the interior as a cosmetic stop-gap measure before the Olympics?

BC Government propoganda fails math test

Posted in Commentary on May 15th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

A BC government press release telling people the usual garbage on how to drive.

The one line that caught my attention was the following:

The Victoria Day long weekend is traditionally among the busiest and deadliest on B.C. roads and highways. According to ICBC’s statistics for last five years, typically four people die and 530 people are injured in nearly 1,600 crashes on B.C. roads over the three-day weekend, with crashes costing ICBC and its customers more than $14 million in claims.

My concern is not the injuries and deaths, but rather the dollar figure on claims.

The press release tries to imply that Victoria day weekend is the worst weekend of the year for car accidents, so let’s pretend every three day period was a Victoria day weekend in BC.

This implies that ICBC has claims costing $1.7 billion dollars, assuming the worst case scenario.

I just paid $924 to renew my insurance for a year (I have a very old vehicle and do not take any of the extra options except $1 million legal liability coverage in the event my car loses its brakes and I run over somebody).

Let’s pretend everybody has a super old vehicle and only insures their vehicle to the tune of $924 per year.

The population of BC is 4.4 million. It’s fair to assume that at least 2/3rds of the people out there drive, but let’s assume there are 3 million cars out there. The actual number is likely more, but again, we are being conservative with the variables. [update: read the comments - this assumption is incorrect, the actual figure for 2007 is around 2.1 million registered vehicles]

So ICBC pulls in at least $2.8 billion in insurance premiums per year.

This is compared to $14 million in claims they issue for a “busy” three day weekend.

Either they’re low-balling that statistic, I’m overestimating the number of cars out there, or they’re charging their customers far, far, far too much.

Something makes me think it’s the latter scenario – ICBC is charging too much for their premiums. I know in my case, when I look at basic coverage, the only item which I would personally take is third party liability. The other forms of insurance are nearly useless and I would happy decide to self-insure myself in those cases. My guess is that my insurance coverage would be roughly $200/year in that case.

Clobbered with the flu

Posted in Site Admin on May 14th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

Getting sick is never fun, but this was not the best of weeks for me to catch the flu. As such, I’ll likely start posting later this week.

A tale of a broken vehicle and public goodwill

Posted in Commentary on May 9th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

I was going to take a writing holiday, but I’m compelled to write about this one.

My automobile (named the “Gutless Cutlass”) suddenly died while stopped at a red light. The only warning was that the “service engine soon” light went on for half a second and then the engine just died. I tried turning on the ignition and it cranked but nothing turned on. This was the first time my car blatantly decided to give up the ghost right in the middle of the street (the other times involved being stranded in a parking lot), so I turned on the emergency blinkers and popped open the hood.

I suspected it was a fuel problem. It eventually turned out the fuel pump crapped out, along with some associated equipment. Considering my vehicle was made in the stone age, this sort of thing was bound to happen. Thankfully I didn’t have to be anywhere in any sort of time, so I called a tow truck and waited 20 minutes watching the traffic going by. I was in the middle lane and there was a left turn bay and a through-lane so traffic flow wasn’t badly impacted.

There were a few drivers during the waiting period that rolled down their windows and wondered whether I needed a phone or a tow truck, but I already indicated to them a tow truck was on the way. There was a pedestrian that was walking by and asked what was wrong with the vehicle. I said it was probably a fuel problem, but he said “let’s confirm this” and got me into the car and tried turning off and on the electrical system three times, and then trying the ignition. No dice. He then told me to press the accelerator and turn on the ignition for about 5 seconds. He went to the back of the car to look at the tailpipe and I turned on the car – no dice. He said “it’s likely a fuel problem and you’ll need a tow”.

The second pedestrian offered me to move the car out of the way by pushing it, but I politely declined since the car was in an OK spot (despite blocking the middle of the street), traffic was not backing up.

I was pleasantly surprised at the politeness of people – nobody said “get out of the road!” or anything like that. I wonder if it would be the same if it broke down on the Port Mann Bridge westbound during rush hour.

A police vehicle eventually came up in traffic and the lady cop asked me if everything was OK and whether I needed some help. I told her that I called a tow truck and while the situation wasn’t ideal, my car would be out of the way in about 10 minutes. She told me to either get in the car or move to the side for safety reasons and I did that. Presumably she keyed my license plate into her car to make sure that my rap sheet was clean (it is) and turned on her emergency lights to make sure that other cars got out of the way.

A tow truck eventually came and we got it towed to the local auto repair facility. During the trip, the tow truck driver remarked that BMW repair shops look cleaner than his kitchen and that the repair technicians for BMW wear white overalls that are sparkling clean. He also said that’s why they charge 120 bucks for an oil change. He also had some other remarks regarding Mercedes, BMWs and computer-controlled vehicles – stories about how a minute after the “service engine soon” light goes on that the car dies a minute later just due to the computer saying it should. The bill for the tow was about 65 dollars.

After dealing with the auto place, they said they’d be able to diagnose it and call me when that’s done. I went back to my parents’ place and pulled out a bicycle that I haven’t used for a few years and pumped up the flat tires. Much to my surprise, the bike and tires worked and I went to the local library. I also couldn’t find the keys to a bike lock that was next to the bike, but it wouldn’t have been a big loss had the bike been stolen. So I decided to make this a test of public goodwill.

The weather was very nice on Friday which made biking a pleasure. I got to the library and just left my bike at the bike rack – there was one other bike there. Obviously I didn’t lock it up and just left it there and went inside the library to do my business (I had to read a bunch of material and a library is a perfect environment to get this done when there are few distractions).

Eventually the auto place called me up and confirmed that it was fuel-related. They have to replace the fuel pump, the fuel filter and some other item that had to do with the linkage between the fuel pump and the engine. The after-tax cost was going to be about $775. Ouch!

I had some preconceptions that this would be a significant maintenance job – anytime you have to get your car towed out, it’s likely going to cost some significant dollars. Deciding to repair your car or say “screw it” and get scrap value for it is not a terribly complex calculation – you have to predict how long the repair will last (or whether you will need additional repairs) and compare this to the cost of leasing (or owning) another vehicle. Since $775 is probably the entire book value of my car (even when it’s running), I probably made a poor decision, but when I compare it to equivalent lease values of newer vehicles (roughly $300/month) if I get three months of mileage out of my car it will be a breakeven decision.

Adding a bit of complexity to this decision was the government’s announcement to enhance the Scrap-It program a month ago – they were going to offer higher incentives to get vehicles (exactly like mine) off the road. The only trick is that those vehicles had to be driven into the scrapyard on their own power – so I couldn’t exactly get my car towed into the scrapyard. That said, there is a minimum value of my vehicle providing that I actually keep it in driving condition. I made a call earlier to the program manager of Scrap-It, and he explained that things were “in the works” and that around mid-summer they will have gotten around to finalizing the enhanced program. There was nothing concrete, but he said that certain car brands that had good fuel economy would be eligible for the full $2,000 credit.

So I’m anticipating that I should probably look for some sort of vehicle in the next few months and if there are any ridiculously good propositions (i.e. something working and less embarrassing to be seen in public with) I might snap on them.

When I left the library, I noticed my bike was still there and it was days like this I have faith in the public. So despite the broken car and the impact on my wallet, it was a relatively nice day and wonderful weather outside, and I knew about some good people I never knew before and will likely never see again.

Will be quiet for a few days

Posted in Site Admin on May 8th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

Posting will be very light for the next few days.

Democratic Nomination

Posted in Commentary on May 7th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

My predicted outcomes were correct in terms of the winners (but this was hardly a surprise), but Hillary barely won Indiana and lost North Carolina by a significant margin.

Now the news outlets are calling for her to stop campaigning, etc.

Hillary has absolutely no incentive to stop campaigning as her goal continues to be to damage Obama as much as possible – Obama can cut her a deal to become the VP nominee, but I very much doubt Clinton will accept it (nor does Obama really want her to be the VP). Clinton would likely to play the role of saboteur in the administration for four years. Instead, she will think about 2012′s nomination period as that is when her Senate term ends.

So in reaction to this, I decided to sell some “Clinton to drop out by June, 30 2008″ contracts at 80% today. I predicted a week ago that this contract would trade higher after yesterday’s primary and I am capturing value right now.

Predictions for today’s primaries

Posted in Commentary on May 6th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

Hillary Clinton to win Indiana by 7% (e.g. 53.5/46.5)
Barack Obama to win North Carolina by 9% (e.g. 54.5/45.5)

I have no money on it, although Hillary is trading at 92% right now in Indiana which I think is a touch high.

Intelligence does not come from data

Posted in Commentary on May 6th, 2008 by Sacha Peter

Justin has a good article on how humans filter signal and noise.

His key quotation:

Intelligence simply does not come from data!

I always imagine what would happen if everybody had a “Wikipedia chip” in their brain – an implant that enabled them to access the entire scope of knowledge contained in the Wikipedia universe. Let’s also pretend that people can mentally edit the Wikipedia and be able to either “beam” it up so others can get the update, or store the change so that it is private.

Would people be smarter as a consequence?

They might be more knowledgeable (i.e. you’d be able to recite election statistics with perfect clarity), but one certainly wouldn’t be more intelligent simply because what is missing is the analysis of all the data. Even though the data is available, without being able to synthesize it with other pieces of data (since you wouldn’t know how to), you would still not be at any more advantage than somebody without the Wiki chip.

Instead, the people that could properly synthesize the information would likely keep the changes to their local Wiki database private since that information would be more valuable than what is available on the public Wiki. Does anybody see how a market analogy will apply?