Hurricane Dean: Jamaica is done
Posted in Commentary on August 17th, 2007 by Sacha Peter
The official track (a compilation of certain computer models) show that Hurricane Dean will slam into Jamaica in about 48 hours. There is a small chance that it will get sideswiped to the north or south (UKMET shows the south, GFDL has it to the north), but the track projection will indicate a direct hit. Since Dean will likely be a category 4 hurricane at this point, it will cause immense amounts of damage.
Coming very soon, watch out for calls for donations and the tragedy of vacationers that didn’t read the cards on the table and get the hell out of dodge. While I am sympathetic to their situation, this is one of the perils of living in the Caribbean and also why throughout history civilization did not flourish there for a long duration of time – they got wiped out every half century or so.
Once Hurricane Dean is done in Jamaica, it will reorganize itself and likely head toward the Texas coast. This depends on where the high pressure ridges are at this time – it could get pushed straight north (the GFDL model has it dangerously close to New Orleans!), or continue on its trajectory. It is very difficult to predict hurricane tracks more than 2 days out, especially after the hurricane makes landfall.
There’s a bit of flawed reasoning here, not to mention a degree of callousness. While I can understand having less sympathy for vacationers than residents, the fact of the matter is that no one (and that includes you) really knows how many individuals had the opportunity “to get out of Dodge” even with several days notice. Flights are limited, airports are limited and means to get to the airport are limited. There’s probably something to be said for the fact that conscious and dumb decision-making led SOME individuals to hang around, it’s very likely a lotare just stuck.
And as for those natives who endure “the perils of living in the Caribbean,” one gets the impression that you view this as almost a matter of choice–as if they should say “Well, I’m tired of these storms, so its time to pack up and head for someplace else, even if I do have to leave my family, home, job, and friends behind, and even if I can’t afford it.”
No way is this guy serious? Got to be American… got to be, very few other countries have citizens with such arrogance.
The only flawed reasoning is how you can turn around my statement into some appeal to pity.
One risk of going into the Caribbean between June and October is that you can get smacked by a hurricane. Any vacationers going between this period should be painfully aware that although unlikely, it does happen.
Your also attributing my comments to the Jamaicans themselves and you are completely misinterpreting, either purposefully or not, what I am saying – Hurricanes in and around the Caribbean have a nasty habit of causing major damage every 50 years or so in any given location.
Just look at Indianola, Texas.
First you Americans cause global warming, then you claim the Jamaicans are too lazy and shiftless to prepare for the inevitable hurricanes. And now you can’t even accept the criticism of your non-American betters!
Ha! The average IQ of the Internet would go up a couple of points if everyone turned off the comments on their blogs.
I am so going to start muttering “typical American” under my breath whenever I disagree with someone :-)
i agree with u raven….its because of you americans why all these problems are occuring, rooting from global warming, and its only going to get worse each year tthe more you all dont care…Raven basically summed up wat i want to say….
thats the beauty of blogging everybody is intitled to a opion he just might be right.
raven what planet are you from.keep in my when most countries have a problem like disasters or famine then who do the call its probably not ghostbusters.
sacha do you get the felling that they dont like americans
How awful that any human that has watched throughout our history of violence and disasters, terrorism and tsunamis can sit there and say, well its their own fault (tourists) if they cant read the cards early to get out! How arrogant can you get! These people do not choose to stay and wait for peril, they are stuck in an awful situation, and people who live there choose to live there the same way as brits choose to stay in a wet country, americans choose to stay in volcanic citys and places like florida (which too gets hit by hurricanes) because its home!!! You are the reason this world is getting to be like it is, inhumane!! God bless people in the way of Dean. …. And by the way I have family on holiday out there including my daughter (7) with grandparents so dont you dare say that they didnt read the cards and get out, they cant!!!!
OK let’s get off this “typical American” garbage. I do agree that unfortunately people on holiday may not be able to schedule flights to leave in the face of this terrible natural disaster. Also, implying that because an area has delt with such disasters throught history does not mean that people cannot learn from it and count losses, and rebuild. No land is immune from it’s own hazzards and “natural” disasters. Alsmost every human being is contributing to this “global warming,” unless you live in the jungles among the small population of people who haven’t contributed to the fast pace of this modern socitey. And if you are sending a blog via a computer, driving a car (or using other froms of vehicular transportation) then you are in fact contributing to the down fall of our world as a whole. I am praying for my brothers and sisters in Jamaica, and for the rest of the nations that are in this storms path. By the way this is coming from an American.
Oh, by the way if American’s are so bad, what do you think about North Koreans? ha!
Some of us “typical Americans” are doing everything we can to stop global warmning … some of these important decisions, however, are in the hands of our government officials. And trust me, not all Americans voted for the ones currently in office. Don’t put all Americans–or anyone for that matter–in the same category.
I cant believe his comments. America is full of criminals and serial killers, does that mean that people are gonna leave the country? I guess not, so why should the caribbean people move when there is gonna be a hurricane? You are only worried about the vacationers what about the citizens? how inhumane! typical american!
It seems you are all talking about Jamaican citizens making the desicion to reside in Jamaica, like it’s a choice. I don’t know who here is a native Jamaican but if there are any, they will most likely agree that for most Jamaicans, there is no choice to up and leave the country. Leaving the country is a very hard, tedious, expensive endevour, that the majority of the time, ends with no reward. Jamaicans don’t have the freedom, like Americans, to hop on a plane and go wherever they want. People don’t leave the island because they are not allowed to, plain and simple.
ps. american speaking
Sabrina, it is typical of Americans to speak on topics they know very little about as if they are experts. I am a born and bread jamaican and I ahve trvelled the world. In fact I am now working in London for a year having been sent there by my company. I case you are wondering I am not rich nor was I born in a privalaged family. It is hard for some in Jamaica but we do get around this is a free country.
Americans always want to look down on Jamaica, but all the looking it seems as if you people do not realize how truly bless we are. Despite all the reports about hurricane we are we have never get a direct hit apart from Gilbert which was in 1988.
With regards about the comments about American can go any where, that is only any where in the state, you better have a passport if you want to come to Ja. Come to think of it its best if some one you say in the state because you sever no purpose in our pardise.
Jamaica have some of the most beautiful people not to mention their homes which in the states only celebrities have that kind of home.
Anyone want some cheese with all this whine. People survive hurricanes. So what. Move on
And “.ca” is a canadian web address.
I am a jamaican living in the U.S. and to here you all describe the disaster that was about to happen like mere joke is appauling. Jamaica is a god bless country, we have survived other hurricane before and we will survive this one just the same with GOD standing by our side
Kim….much respect, but I think this topic went over your head!
Does anyone ever analyze or question US foreign policy????? The rest of the world only exists to feed and support the infrstructure of the ever growing, bloated, greedy Uncle Sam…. as for global warming and climate change the US (policy) neither cares, nor is serious or interested about any other nation other than itself, the survical and preservation of the planet for the next generations to come……………
Well everyone is worried about what the Americans think and how they behave. Open up your eyes people, they step on everyone’s shoulder to reach where they are today. They try to destroy anyone who they think are prospering more than they are. Our animosity is againt our whole country. We speak against the Americans but have you seen the lines at the US embassy? People exist who would pay thousands of dollars to get a visa, even a one entry. We are the ones let them think that they have power over us, we treat they with extreme respect when they come into our restaurants and into our hotels, just because their dollar is very strong. We give them the power to believe that they are higher than us, which causes them to make comments that undermines us. They dont care about us during the hurricane, they only care about the vacationers in our country. Yet they are wondering why we don’t leave. Why dont they leave their country that is full of every sin there is. America has the most serial killers, the most homosexuals, and criminals of all kinds. Totop it all they are the most terroist attracted country. Why didnt they laeva after 9/11? They need to fix up their own lives and stop meddling in ours. If we want to live in our country until hurricane blow us away then so be it!
Real Jamaican,
I am not not some “American” that knows nothing about what I speak of, unfortunately you have jumped the gun. I have lived in your country, and not in the tourist areas but in the ghetto, Seaton Crescent in Sav, ring a bell? I know how hard it is for Jamaicans to leave, even if they want to go on vacation. What my point was is that Americans need only a passport to go anywhere, Jamaicans need to jump through many hoops to ever leave the country. Am I saying there are no natives that get to leave, absolutley not. You are a lucky one. I went through visa denial after visa denial with a loved one for four and a half years. So, don’t tell me I don’t know what I am talking about or even imply that Jamaicans get to experience a free country. It seems when you left your country you forgot what it was like to live there. To say that Jamaicans live in a free country is blind patriotism and ignorance. Every country has there faults, I know the states is not flawless, dont forget about Jamaica’s struggles.
P.s. whoever wrote about american being full of sin: didn’t you ever hear that Jamaica is the murder capital of the world? Like I said we all have problems and crimes. We shouldn’t point fingers. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
Oh Please Sabrina! It only seems as if Jamaica is the murder capital of the world because it is small. Get your facts straights girl! By the way you sound as if you have turned into an American! Thats how you people are, I bet that you are one of them who have fogotten about your friends and family in Jamaica.
Well Thank God we survived Hurricane Dean and alot of us have resumed our normal activities with business places opening today. So we did feel some effects of the huricaneand and there has been some damages around the country, but we survived and we are NOT GONE!!!! So for all of you out there who wished or stupidly predicted our demise, I have a story for you, WE ARE STILL HERE.
Well if i may add that for those of you who need schooling on the laws of getting out as you put it…
1st. We can’t choose where we are born.
2nd. Jamaicans goverment and the goverments of other countries, ( u.s.a ) for example make it very difficult for jamaicans to leave there motherland.
3.How many people could leave everything they know for everything they don’t.
What an odd post. What exactly were you trying to say here? Putting aside the fact that I’m a somewhat incensed Jamaican, and that I’m late to the game (Dean has now hit Mexico), the English teacher in me is… confounded. I think most bloggers think they have some writing skill, but I’m not seeing it here. Surely you weren’t trying to be as offensive and imperious as you came off. (From the tone, I assume that you posted this from the safe confines of your inland, underground, well-above-sea-level bunker?). I do wish you would clarify.
Meanwhile, the History teacher in me is extremely concerned with your totally unqualified statement that “civilization did not flourish [in Jamaica] for a long duration of time” because it is “wiped out” every 50 years or so. What an embarassingly crazy statement! I suppose India hasn’t contributed much to civilization, what with their monsoons. Or Japan, with its tsunamis. I could go on. Is there any place on Earth that is not subject to severe weather? If you want to actually learn something about the connection between civilization and geography, I recommend “Guns, Germs & Steel” by Jared Diamond. I warn you, it’s a thick book. A tome, even. But his theory holds a lot more water than yours. And FWIW, our native Taino/Arawak civilization was wiped out by Europeans, not the weather. Look it up.
Moving on, the Debate & Critical Thinking teacher in me is troubled by the way you go seamlessly from chastising oblivious tourists to implying that all Jamaicans should get up and go somewhere else. I know what you’re getting at, and thanks for your sympathy, but where would you suggest they go? By your logic, everyone should just evacuate the Midwest (tornadoes), New England (deadly heat in the summer, deadly cold in the winter), and all of California (earthquakes, landslides, constant summer brushfires).
And finally, I would like to point out that Jamaica is not New Orleans. We sit in the hurricane path, and we build accordingly. Jamaica took a direct hit from Gilbert in ’88, and there was a lot— I mean a lot— of damage. But obviously the island was not “wiped out.” So don’t cry for us! Cry for New Orleans.
Also, take a writing class. Jeez.
Karinova, you deserve a standing ovation for the comments you wrote. I am so proud of you, and the way you ‘give it to dem’. Your comment is the most sensible one posted. On behalf of all Jamaicans; Thank you!
PS: Jamaica was the “murder capital” of the world for about two weeks in January 2006. Sweet cracker sandwich, does anyone do any research anymore? Anyway, as far as I can tell, Washington DC is still the all-time champion. Not that that means much of anything.
Karinova,
If you don’t like how people write, don’t visit the site. For better or for worse, people don’t have to be English teachers to write in a blog. However, thank you for actually writing an intelligent comment here that didn’t have to do with the typical anti/pro-American garbage that you see all over the internet. I’m surprised nobody wrote about Bush yet.
To respond about the “civilization did not flourish” statement, the Caribbean is a unique area. Hurricanes affect huge amounts of area, and island nations (Hispanola, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, etc.) historically had an extremely difficult time recovering from these events. In the case of other nations (including Japan), there is sufficient landmass to retreat to. Modern building materials didn’t exist back then, so the effect of hurricanes was much more severe than it is now. Hurricanes are unique disasters so I won’t even bother replying to your false analogies about earthquakes and tornadoes.
Finally, you can read whatever you want in my statement, but I said if it hit it would cause “immense amount of damage”, and nowhere did I say that “all Jamaicans should get up and leave the island”. Perhaps you might be an English teacher, but somehow you missed the lessons on reading comprehension. You also aren’t even writing from a computer in Jamaica, so you must have left the island for a good reason.
Sacha,
You seem to be undermining Jamaica. I think you envy us Sacha. You see that we are a blessed island, and I bet you wish you were a Jamaican! I bet you wish Jamaica was wrecked like New Orleans. I feel sorry for you!
natsy,
You are utterly sick and demented. Please stay in Florida.
Sacha,
You don’t break me. Utterly sick and demented? Is that all you’ve got? Utterly sick and demented are so in the 90′s, come with something better girl! You are a joke. Go team up with Steve Harvey. Utterly sick and demented, hahahaha
Nasty,
First of all Jamaica was coined the “murder capital of the world”, by the media, not by me, because the murder rate is so high PER CAPITA. Get YOUR facts straight…if you don’t know what per capita is, I am sure it’s in Webster (the dictionary). Second of all, if you read my earlier post you would know that I am an American and I spend much more time, money, and effort in improving the lives of loved ones living in Jamaica than many people who leave the island behind and forget where they came from.