Double Blind

Time to celebrate! Attached left is my account balance at Pinnacle; net profit is $3148.72. I will take a day to figure out how much equity I need in the online world, and cash out the rest to a bank account where I can earn 4% interest on the money. There are not any political events that are worth wagering on until the next Canadian election, so I’ll be waiting for that. I’m going to be very silent on the prediction market front (at least as a trader) and attend to some other matters.

I had some functions to keep me busy from 1:00pm until now, so I wasn’t around to watch the television and watch the blow-by-blow delegate vote. I quickly saw the results of the third ballot but couldn’t get to my computer to post my extrapolation of the final result (my spreadsheet model had it Dion 53%, Ignatieff 47%) but the end result was that Dion won. This is a huge success for the Liberal Party, bad for the Conservatives and financially successful for myself. I also think this will create a really close election when it gets called in February or March of next year.

I will of course be covering the lead-up to the next election and be actively involved in any prediction markets involving Canadian politics.

In the meantime, I will sleep well; this was my largest gain in a single bet in a prediction market ever. I don’t think opportunities like the one I saw will come very often.

This entry was posted on Sunday, December 3rd, 2006 and is filed under Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.