Lieberman vs. Lamont
There is an interesting election coming up on August 8 – the primary election in the state of Connecticut to see who gets the Democratic party nomination in the 2006 Senate election.
Joe Lieberman has been the senator for the last 18 years, but there has been a large movement by the state democrats to remove him from office because he supports the war in Iraq. Ned Lamont is Lieberman’s competition.
I originally believed that Lieberman would win the primary 55/45 (which is a very close result considering the length of incumbancy), but now my research shows considerable uncertainty. The polls are very inaccurate and should be taken with a grain of salt.
As such, I took bets that Lieberman would win the primary, but now my opinion is shifting such that that he will be losing the primary. I am not certain enough where it would warrant a bet at existing market odds, however.
I originally took my position with a 55% probability of Lieberman winning, but liquidated this bet for 45%. I took a $16 loss. The original risk-reward profile was $88 risked for a potential $72 gain, but my money is now off the table and the losses have been limited.