The full document (approximately 300 pages) can be found here. Since I actually enjoy reading these types of documents, I went through it all. In theory you can just read page 249 to 315 to read the proposed changes to legislation. The rest of the document simply provides justification for the changes proposed.
Most of the information contained in this budget was telegraphed in advance, mainly in the last election campaign and in the preceding week from the finance minister himself. Thus, not too much of it was surprising.
The general thought is that since the Conservatives are in a minority government situation (in fact, the existing government has the least percentage of the seats in parliament), they can’t hammer anything that would cause a block-veto by the other three parties. Considering the polling numbers, if the budget fell and there was another election, it would be highly probable that the Conservatives would be able to form government again with possibility a majority (my intuition suggests a better than 50% chance of a majority government in the event that the budget is voted down) so there is considerably more latitude in the budget than back in 1979 when Joe Clark got booted out of office.
The big complaint from Liberals and the NDP will be about child care, and the $5 billion in money that was pledged by Paul Martin to the First Nations that will not come down the pipeline. The NDP will also complain about the cut in corporate income taxes and lack of environmental provisions (i.e. anything of substance on the Kyoto Protocol). Both of those parties will likely vote against the budget, while it is likely that the Bloc will vote for the budget.
Note that all the page references in this post are actual budget document pages and not “PDF pages” from the PDF document.
Here are some random thoughts that caught my attention:
Page 56 – It is interesting the government is mentioning to allocate future budget surpluses to the CPP to reduce “intergenerational inequity”. This is the first time I’ve ever heard anything mentioned about that issue (intergenerational inequity) and all I can say is “better late than never” simply because the governments (of both Liberal and Conservative stripes) between 1968 to 1995 left this country in an incredible mess. I will agree with Declan’s analysis that contributing such surpluses to pay down interest-bearing debt is probably more logical, especially as short term interest rates are rising. Canada, as well as British Columbia, really need to formalize a debt management strategy to reduce the nominal debt level to zero and not to a fraction of GDP. Probably the best way of doing this is limiting spending to the rate of inflation as if previous governments over the past 20 years did this then we’d have about half the public debt that we have today. It’s a shame that large budget surpluses are considered to be “politically incorrect” since you have calls by all sorts of special interest groups to either spend it or cut taxes with it. Reducing debt is the most politically unsexy option, but in most cases it’s the right thing to do – you can always borrow the money again in the future.
The Canada employment credit will be $250 for the 2006 tax year and $1000 for the 2007 tax year and indexed to inflation beyond. Anybody that’s actually employed in this province will be receiving an extra $53.88/$215.50 for years 2006/2007, respectively, which is not a trivial amount of money.
Likewise, parents will be receiving $1200 per child per year, which is not a trivial amount of money either. I don’t particularly buy the argument that “it’s just $3.29/day” when any amount would help. It would be really interesting to see the arguments that would be made if it they made it a $10,000/year/child subsidy. I just might start having kids and hoping for triplets.
Tax credit for textbooks – thankfully this isn’t tied to the actual purchase of textbooks for education, which of course always sell at ripoff prices. In other words, this is just like increasing the monthly tax break that part-time or full-time students get for education. Getting rid of the taxable components of scholarship money is also a good move, although I think it will eventually be re-capped to a higher number (like $20,000 or so from $3,000) since you can really abuse the tax system with respect to awarding scholarships instead of jobs to students.
The lowest tax bracket will be 15.25% for 2006 and 15.5% for 2007. The basic personal amount for 2006 will be $8839 and 2007 will be $8639 plus inflation plus $100. I really think if the Conservatives get a majority government in the next election they will be trying to flatten the tax brackets as much as possible.
(page 78) Dividend gross-ups will be 45% and 19% of that will be deductible. If you do the math, it means that low marginal rate taxpayers will be paying negative taxes on dividend income. I wonder if they thought the legislation through carefully enough as page 309 makes no real reference to this at all. Start looking at those high-yield preferred shares…
The tax credit on monthly transit passes will give people in BC a 21.5% discount on transit passes.
Elimination of corporate capital taxes will have a huge effect in the long run in attracting capital into the country. There is no good political argument for getting rid of capital taxes since it makes you look like that you’re in bed with big business, but the only way to attract capital is not to scare it off. This single move will probably do more for the employment rate of this country than any other provision in the budget. Odd how it doesn’t get much press except when the NDP complains about it. Increasing the small business income exemption from $300 to $400k and extending the length of carrying forward losses from 10 to 20 years will be a welcome move for all those Tim Hortons’ franchisees and drug development companies, respectively.
When I look at my own wallet, in 2006 I will be down about $68 due to the increase of the lower tax bracket, but I will be up about $54 due to the $250 employment tax credit and up about $50 bucks via the GST cut when I look at my spending patterns in the last half of 2005 and assume the same for 2006. The dividend tax credit will also give me a few bucks (literally).
The big winners in this budget from tax measures would be parents, students, businesses (after 2008) and people planning purchases after July 1, 2006. Oddly enough since I’m not in any of those categories, I don’t personally benefit from much of it other than the GST cut.
I will leave arguments for the spending side (or lack thereof) for the many other blogs out there that will be blasting the Conservatives. I don’t think it’s any secret that the Conservatives aren’t fans of the Kyoto Protocol and also I think you can count the number of First Nations people on my hand that voted for the Conservatives in the last election (and the next one) which probably explains the lack of 5 billion coming their way via a pledge that Paul Martin made.
It’s my impression that this budget is hardly a radical change and is clearly a post and pre-election budget at the same time. If you take out the provisions for defence spending and child care, and apply that to the environment and First Nations, you could almost confuse this budget for being a Liberal one.