Federal Liberal leadership race projection
Calgary Grit has been thoroughly covering this, including his last article, The Big Ten. Unless if Paul Martin or Jean Chretien come back from the dead and decide to run for the leadership (which isn’t going to happen), there isn’t a candidate that can come in this stage and shake up the equilibrium enough to make a difference – anybody of significance (e.g. McKenna, Rock, etc.) has already declined to run.
Since there isn’t a futures market that trades on who will win the Liberal leadership convention, I will say it here first that if there were such a market, I would be picking up bets on Ken Dryden. I’m guessing that if there were such a market, he would be trading at about 20:1 and in reality I think he’s got a 2:1 shot of taking it.
There is a site called LiberalLeadershipOdds, but this is a blog about the chances of individual candidates, without any element of money. Shame.
After many ballots, it should come down to Kennedy, Dion and Dryden, and Ken Dryden should win and become the next leader of the Liberal party of Canada.
Of course we haven’t heard much with respect to differentiation between the candidates and the policies they plan on pushing through if elected as leader, but I somehow doubt if Ignatieff has a chance mainly because he’s about as right winged as your average Conservative party politician, and I figure the Liberal delegates won’t go for that.