Double Blind

According to my financial modelling, there’s a better than 50% chance that Friday’s action will be positive in the T-Bond futures market. The order will be liquidated at the end of Friday if neither the gain or loss parameter is reached since I do not like holding open futures positions over the weekend.

Some of you may ask… “Why didn’t you just short the thing at 111 4/32 and then cover it up at 110 18/32?” It’s always easy to place optimal trades by looking at the chart in the past, but the reality of precision trading is that you can only profit by looking forward. This is just like saying “if I had just chosen the last 6 digits in the 6/49 lottery I could have been a millionaire”. I had no indications that the T-Bond market would drop to 110 18/32 that day, but I do know if it did, that there would be better than likely chance that the T-Bond market would rise to my limit price indicated. My entry point was within 3/32 of the low for that day, which is a good sign so far.

We’ll see whether I’m right or wrong on this one on Friday.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 24th, 2006 and is filed under Finance. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.