Running against a strong headwind

Posted in Commentary on February 23rd, 2006 by Sacha Peter

In today’s training, I tried running against a very strong wind and the effort was absolutely exhausting. I think due to the fact that the wind cools the body so much (ambient temperature was about 5 degrees C) combined with the wind chill, it really zaps your performance. In addition, I tried reducing my pace, but to no avail. It reminded me of running up a large incline.

Next time when the wind is bad, I will just run around a residential complex instead. Hopefully the housing will break the wind in certain spots. I did notice when running with the wind at your back it was much, much easier. But that’s cheating!

BC Budget 2006 – to be released today

Posted in Politics on February 21st, 2006 by Sacha Peter

The 2006 BC Budget will be released today at 2:45pm. You can make some extrapolations on what will be in the budget based on the 2006 Budget Consultation Process Report. As a side note, I did make a submission to the committee that wrote the report, so you can find my name in the back of the document.

Without having any sort of insider information, here are my guesses on what will be inside the budget:

  • Some sort of tax credit for “healthy living”;
  • Money thrown at the Family and Child development ministry;
  • Spending initiatives on preventative health measures;
  • A formal debt management plan (consisting of getting the debt-to-GDP at a certain level by a very far-off date, but this will not include a plan to reduce the provincial debt to zero);
  • NO reduction in the PST (the media has been rumoured to predict a 1% drop in the PST), but possibly a provision to reduce the PST that municipal jurisdictions near the Alberta border would have to pay;
  • The previously announced $1B allocation for public sector wages this fiscal year;
  • A moderate increase in the basic exemption before you start paying provincial income taxes (perhaps raising it from $8900 to $10000);
  • Allocation of funding toward the Gateway project;
  • A healthy contingency reserve concerning natural gas royalties;
  • One LARGE surprise in the budget that I can’t predict here but will make headlines.
  • This will be Carole Taylor’s first budget. You can be sure there will be at least one surprise to keep the media busy. I would guess it would be a spending measure dealing with seniors or targeting the ageing population demographic. In general, I would expect the media to be focused on the spending measures of the budget although there will be a couple goodies on the tax side that should keep everybody other than the NDP happy.

    About the PST, the reason why I am skeptical is because reducing the PST from 7 to 6% would cost the government about $580M. They are going to need this budgetary room to pay for the capital projects coming down the pipeline in addition to reducing their debt to GDP ratio. Also, the government knows that the natural gas royalty gravy train is about to end soon, so they won’t spend money they don’t have since Gordon Campbell is a fiscal conservative at heart. You usually save the spending binges in the budget before an election, while performing the nasty stuff just after you win one. Unfortunately, I don’t know what nasty measures the government could bring in for this budget – there’s no reason at this point to rock the boat.

    Vancouver Sun Run Training

    Posted in Commentary on February 21st, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    (Update: 2008 Vancouver Sun Run Training schedule is discussed on this post, or directly here)

    One of my New Year’s resolutions (there were 12 of varying complexity) was to complete the Vancouver Sun Run in a respectable period of time. For those that don’t know, the Vancouver Sun Run is a 10 kilometer run that has evolved to be the second largest 10km run in North America.

    There were a few reasons for this particular new year’s resolution. One was that I needed to shake myself up and do something completely different – breaking up a routine is important for personal development. Also, training for a race requires some medium-term planning, and my strategic planning processes inside my head need some practice, so this was as much mental as physical. Physically I don’t do a lot of exercise in the wintertime, so coincidentally it will better prepare me for the summer hiking season. One of the hikes I have planned in the summer is fairly aggressive and completion of this hike is also another of my New Year’s resolutions.

    I set a target of being in the 25th percentile for my age group (25 to 29). You can see the 2005 race results right here. In the male 25-29 age group, out of the 2658 people registered, 2071 actually managed to finish AND stick the timing chip in their shoes correctly. So out of the 2071 people that actually finished, you have the 50th percentile finisher ranked 1035. This person finished in 58 minutes and 20 seconds. The 75th percentile runner (ranked 518) did it in 50 minutes and 51 seconds. The 25th percentile runner (ranked 1553) did the race in 70 minutes and 27 seconds.

    I do quite a bit of hiking in the summer (when the weather is warm), so I’m not completely out of shape, but running (outside of the running you do when playing other sports) is something I have never done. As a result, I have set myself a reasonable target of being better than the 25th percentile runner, or running better than 70 minutes and 27 seconds for this coming Sun Run.

    In preparing for this, I have been following the Learn to Run 10k program and have now completed six weeks (of a 13 week program). I can comment that running initially was difficult, mainly that I was over-exerting myself too much in the running phase (heart rate was too high), but after the second week things really started to settle down and the running became much more doable. There hasn’t been too much in terms of physical ailments – usually I can classify the training sessions as being “cardio short” (where you don’t seem to get enough breath while running) or “legs short” (your legs/calves really start getting sore during the running).

    I have observed with the weather here being as rainy and cold as it is, it does indeed make running a little more difficult. Although I prefer cold weather because my body generates a lot of excess heat, I did notice when I did my training in southern California and Arizona a week ago (where the weather, suffice to say, is much warmer than it is here in Vancouver) it was much easier to run, although I end up drenched in my own sweat after.

    I’ve traced my running on Google Earth and preliminary estimates after week 6 show that I can probably do the Sun Run in about 68 minutes if I had to do it today without further training. This is making an extrapolation based off of a run-walk cycle and it also makes a conservative estimate on how fast my running speed would decay in the last 2.5 kilometers of the race (as I have never run/walked for the full 10km in a training session). My intention is to run for most of the race, so hopefully I can get my projected time down to 60 to 64 minutes. A real ideal result would be a time better than 60 minutes, which would mean I can run 10 kilometers an hour for an hour, double the typical walking speed.

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    How Men Choose Women

    Posted in Links on February 18th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    This article, posted by The Tyee, is part of a valentine series of articles. I found it to be an interesting read.

    The weird factors going into consumer purchasing decisions

    Posted in Commentary on February 17th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    For some reason my mind keeps going back to the note that was left on the door, from my previous post.

    One of the comments left in the article was the following:

    Posted by: Chris at February 13, 2006 12:05 PM

    Its not the first time something like this happened. I used to be the night manager at the Blenz at broadway/granville, and I quit along with some other employee’s due to the owner’s blatent disregard for Canadian labor laws and health code. Blenz simply doesn’t regulate its frandchise properly. If you have the money, you can buy one and bend the rules to your liking.

    Word of advice, don’t go to the Broadway and Granville location. I believe it is still owned and operated by Rosa Kim. Reasons? Rats in the back, coffee is brewed and served until the container is empty (sits on heater for 6+hrs at times), they serve bread that “looks” like it can still be eaten (2+ weeks old), she doesn’t give employee’s breaks, schedules them for shifts they cant work, gives little to no raises off minimum wage. I was a evening manager doing cash outs and closings and was only paid $8.20/hr, and I had to put up with the gripes from the customers complaining about moldy bread and lousy coffee, as well as my fellow employees being treated unfairly.

    Myself and a few other employee’s quit and told the owner, Rosa, to let us leave in peace or else we’d report her to the better business bureau and the health inspectors. Tried calling Blenz head office to complain about the situation and all they said was “Does Rosa know you’re doing this? We’re going to have to let her know”

    Shocked but pleasantly surprised to see that uprising’s can happen at other Blenz locations. Maybe the company will start acting in a more respectable manner now and regulate. Some of the drinks taste pretty good, but whats the point if they’re presented in a pile of $hit.

    Although I don’t go out to them very often, I do like coffee shops as they serve as an excellent venue to unwind and socialize one-on-one or in small groups. Typically the decision where to go is motivated by location, rather than any preference between Starbucks, Blenz, the Second Cup or some other independently owned shop.

    Now to my recollection, the two times that I ever ordered a non-coffee product at a Blenz place (usually some square pastry consisting of nuts, sugar and other dentally damaging ingredients) I wasn’t very satisfied at the quality of the product, they were rock-hard, which implies they’ve probably been sitting out on the shelf too long. Considering that they are very high margin products (in comparison to the cost to manufacture), I would expect something of higher quality than what I received (mainly it being quite hard and stale). Hearing comments like the above makes me correlate my previous experiences with the comments itself. I have no idea whether the comment is truthful or not, but I have no reason to believe the person writing the comment was lying.

    As a result, my consumer behaviour is actually changed – if I was given a decision to go to a coffee shop, I would probably exclude Blenz from my selection if there were other alternatives around the meeting location. Preferably I would like going to an independent shop rather than a mainstream label place, but given a choice between the “big three”, the article actually had a material impact on my future consumer purchasing decisions. The probability of me spending coffee money in Blenz has considerably lowered.

    I wonder if other consumers think in the same way – my line of thinking is very indirect, but this is where the art of marketing comes into play. Whether they anticipated it or not, the writers of the note on the door caused a chain of events to happen that affected the future buying decision of me and probably others with respect to Blenz.

    On a side note, Starbucks has learned from the very beginning that it’s very difficult to keep customers happy if you have unhappy employees serving them. Starbucks apparently treats their employees very well and considering that they’ve delivered results for their shareholders, it looks like it was a winning strategy, something that Blenz has yet to learn.

    A final footnote – What’s ironic is that this has little to do with the coffee, which follows a fairly strict formula for preparing. Essentially a latte is a certain amount of boiling water processed through a measured amount of freshly ground dry coffee grains (approximately 2 tablespoons of ground coffee per 150mL of water); on the side, milk is streamed and flavouring (vanilla, hazelnut, etc.) is added; at the end the coffee/water mix goes into the milk and stirred, perhaps adding some whipping cream on top. All coffee shops have the necessary equipment and raw supplies to produce an identical cup of coffee, so coffee should be a commodity item and priced as such. Instead, the consumer pays 4 bucks for a cup of coffee that costs about 30 cents to prepare, the majority of the cost being the cardboard cup that it is served in. It’s an incredible marketing model that people thought was insane 20 years ago, but Starbucks proved the critics wrong. If the coffee wasn’t so expensive, we would be seeing less coffee shops over the place, so I would estimate that half the cost is a premium on having so many locations across the city. Because the industry is rather profitable, there are a lot of competitors (Blenz, Second Cup, etc.), but none of them ever dare to compete on price, which is something I find very, very interesting. It suggests that coffee consumers aren’t price sensitive.

    ESM final results

    Posted in Commentary on February 17th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    The ESM has officially liquidated. Cheques in the mail on February 23rd, so I’ll probably receive mine on Monday the 27th. The profits from this venture will pay for some nice rib-eye steaks.

    Movie Review – Firewall

    Posted in Commentary on February 15th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    I saw the movie Firewall yesterday, starring Harrison Ford.

    The movie stunk. Some movies are so bad that you just want to watch them to see how much worse it gets – these movies have entertainment value. Battlefield Earth was a good example of this. Firewall, however, was of the type that it wasn’t bad enough where you could laugh at it, but it wasn’t at all good to make you interested in the movie. About halfway through, I thought to myself “I really don’t give a crap how this movie ends”. Suffice to say, the ending was as lack-lustre as the entire movie, so I left the theatre feeling completely violated and deprived at the 2 hours taken from my life.

    There were so many plot holes that you could drive a dump truck through it. The characters weren’t believable and they miraculously changed personalities half-way through (the crooks turned incompetent and Harrison Ford finally got angry after getting his family abducted). It was almost as if the movie was grafted together out of three or four short stories and turned into a movie feature to keep Harrison Ford busy while they figure out the next plot to Indiana Jones.

    Firewall isn’t even worth picking up if you see it selling in the $2 bargain bin at the local video store. Hell, even if it was free I wouldn’t recommend picking it up.

    Throne speech today

    Posted in Politics on February 14th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    The BC government is back in the legislature starting today at 2:00pm with the throne speech. The throne speech outlines the legislative agenda for the government over the session.

    Anticipated (note these are pure guesses) will be the following:

  • A theme of transportation – moving people forward (an obvious reference to the Gateway project and projected spending on transportation infrastructure in the province)
  • Some sort of reference to “healthy living” or preventative health measures
  • A reference to the pending labour unrest (i.e. a ton of union contracts will be up for renewal over the next year, including the BC Teachers’ Federation)
  • Streamlining paperwork for businesses
  • Some sort of environmental/sustainability initiative
  • Some sort of reference to the First Nations land claims process
  • The next big speech in the legislature will be the BC Budget on February 21.

    Political joke of the day

    Posted in Links, Politics on February 13th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    I’m fairly sure Dick Cheney shooting one of his own hunting mates will make for lots of fodder on the late night comedy shows. Here’s a pretty funny one from Declan.

    Spreads between GIC and Canada Bond rates

    Posted in Finance on February 13th, 2006 by Sacha Peter

    If you’re thinking about investing some cash into a GIC, pay attention to ING Direct‘s rates, they usually have the highest rates on the market. You can also go to a place like a GIC Direct, but I have no idea how easy or difficult it is to realize their posted rates (e.g. do they charge commissions, or have minimum investment amounts, etc.).

    What I find interesting is that the spread between the rate a government bond will give you versus a GIC is shrinking substantially. If you look at the Bank of Canada’s webpage concerning the benchmark bond yields (just scroll down a bit to get to them), you will see the following:

    Bank of Canada current benchmark bond yield:
    2-Year: 3.98%
    3-Year: 4.03%
    5-Year: 4.12%

    Compare that with the following (and the spread) at ING Direct:
    2-Year: 3.80% (-0.19%)
    3-Year: 3.85% (-0.18%)
    5-Year: 4.00% (-0.12%)

    At GIC Direct, the differential is actually positive:
    2-Year: 4.11% (+0.13%)
    3-Year: 4.21% (+0.18%)
    5-Year: 4.39% (+0.27%)

    So in theory, assuming your transaction costs are zero, you can short government bonds and raise capital with them, and then buy the GIC and claim the spread. The profit on a $100,000 transaction (which is a risk-free limit due to the CDIC guarantee) is $270 yearly on a 5-year transaction.

    Of course, all such transactions are not riskless. For example, you have to factor in commissions, after-tax returns, the ability to borrow and short sell Canadian bonds and use the proceeds as a deposit for a GIC, the ability for the “guarantee” in the GIC acronym to come true, etc.

    The point of this post, however, is to illustrate something that’s been happening over the past 2 years: the interest rate yield curve is flattening. Traditionally it has cost more to borrow money for a longer duration than a short duration. Now that spread has thinned to a very small level (0.14% difference between 2-year and 5-year loans… compare with the USA which is a NEGATIVE 0.09% difference), banks are going to have a more difficult time making money.

    In the past, what would happen is that the banks would borrow money at short term rates and then lend money to people at longer durations (hence the phrase borrow short, lend long). Looking at the rates that are being offered today, it makes me think that banks are making very little profit on GICs which makes me wonder – how the heck are they making money? I think most of their profits are concentrated around the mortgage and institutional banking industries, which exhibit higher spreads than GIC rates. It’s almost as if GIC rates are a loss leader for future business with the same clients.

    None of this would be happening if it wasn’t for the internet. I’m beginning to think that instead of being a top-10 invention of the 20th century, it’s rapidly becoming the top-1 invention in squeezing more efficiency out of our economy than anybody ever could have imagined when DARPA initially funded the project in the 1960′s.