Double Blind

Here are my final seat projections for the 2006 Canadian Election, province-by-province, with comments:

British Columbia – Conservative 19, NDP 14, Liberal 3

Previously discussed – the NDP are the left wing alternative this election. You can thank Carole James and Jack Layton for this, as BC traditionally hates the NDP Federally when they’re in provincial government. Right now the BC Liberals (a party that typically has a membership consisting of federal Liberals and Conservatives) are in control, so this will bode well for the NDP.

Alberta – Conservative 28

The only real competition is in Edmonton Center, where Anne McLellan is toast.

Saskatchewan – Conservative 12, Liberal 1, NDP 1

Nothing to report here.

Manitoba – Conservative 6, Liberal 4, NDP 3

Churchill’s NDP support is being split which highly suggests a Liberal victory.

Ontario – Liberal 53, Conservative 43, NDP 10

You have to take a look at the different areas of the province. The Greater Toronto region is divided into two area codes – 416 and 905. The 416 area code is closer to the city core, while the 905 area code is on the outskirts of the 416 area. The 905 area outside Toronto is heavily Liberal, while the 905 area not near Toronto is either NDP or Conservative leaning. The 416 area is heavily Liberal with a sprinkling of NDP support (thanks to Jack Layton and Olivia Chow, who will both win their seats). The eastern part of the province (dominated by Ottawa) is Conservative leaning, with moderate Liberal and NDP support, the latter two concentrated in the Ottawa metro area. The Northern part of the province is Liberal and NDP supporting, while the southwest is Conservative leaning. When you weight the seat distribution (there is a heavy weight on the urban areas) and account for “special seats” that have deviant expectations, you end up with the result above.

Quebec – Bloc 60, Liberal 10, Conservatives 4, Independent 1

You can divide Quebec into two areas – Montreal and the rest of the province. The Liberals and Conservatives have roughly equal support in Montreal, which spells big trouble for the Liberals. Outside Montreal, the Conservatives have been polling respectably well which should give them a few seats to work with. The lone independent is Andre Arthur, in the riding of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier. In Montreal, the Liberal support, where they have it, is very concentrated and this will translate into a few seats. Outside of Montreal, they are absolutely toast except in Hull, where this riding is virtually an extension of Ottawa. Despite the fact that the Bloc’s popular support is going to be approximately the same as the last election, vote splitting is going to give them more seats this time around.

Atlantic Canada – Liberal 18, Conservative 11, NDP 3

Nothing is changing here from the previous election except for a single seat in Newfoundland and a couple seats in New Brunswick.

Territories – Liberal 2, NDP 1

The Northwest Territories should go NDP, although there may be surprises here simply because of the lower number of voters and historical volatility.

Final projection:
Conservatives 123
Liberals 92
Bloc Quebecois 60
NDP 32
Independent 1

Traditionally, when a party gets about 40% of the popular vote they’re considered to be in the running for a majority government. The only problem with this assumption is that the last three elections have had the Bloc Quebecois, which make it difficult to obtain a majority without an overwhelming majority of seats in the rest of the country. The Conservatives have the bulk of their support in Western Canada, the Liberals have their support in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, the NDP have their support in select areas of urban and rural areas of the country with certain characteristics (union influences), while the Bloc obviously have their support in Quebec.

Because of this regionalism, when the parties win their seats, they tend to win them with overwhelming majorities. Look at your average Alberta riding – for example, the riding of Medicine Hat (the home of soon-to-be finance minister Monte Solberg) is going to vote 75-80% Conservative, which is some 40% more than he actually needs to get elected. The Liberal riding of Etobicoke North (in metro Toronto) is going to be won with way more than 50% of the vote.

Because there are no major vote splitting mechanisms (the right-wing vote is consolidated in one major party, of which this did not exist when Jean Chretien was in power) and with the Bloc Quebecois continually taking nearly 50% of the popular vote in Quebec means that in order for a party to form a majority government, they will need closer to 45% of the popular vote in the rest of the country in order to form a majority government assuming that they continue to achieve massive victories in the seats in their ‘core’ region.

The other question I will already be asking is – When will the next election be? My guess will be the fall of 2007.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 23rd, 2006 and is filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.