Canadian Election 2006 Predictions
Posted in Politics on December 30th, 2005 by Sacha PeterI will be giving a seat-by-seat projection of BC on the weekend before the election – in particular, the swing ridings will be interesting to call. I hope to go 36 for 36. I have been actively trading on the ESM and currently anticipate making a 15% return on investment. The markets are fairly efficient, but there are ways of squeezing money out of the rock.
Tradesports, however, provides some binary marketplaces for party seat counts. The Liberals at 121.5, Conservatives at 106.5, Bloc at 57.5 and the NDP at 22.5. There is considerable potential to make money on this market.
In 2004, the Bloc vote tended to evaporate nearing election day, and the NDP vote tends to trend Liberal when the Conservatives have a chance of forming government. Will history repeat itself for 2006? This is a call that I will be making, but unfortunately since the markets are not liquid enough, I won’t be announcing it here.
I have quite a bit of online equity that will be freed up when the December Bird Flu contract expires at zero (I was short from 34%), so this will be ploughed into the Canadian Election market.
(Update January 22, 2006: Final predictions for Canada-wide results, and the BC-specific seat projections.)
After tonight’s debates I hope voters remember a vote for Mr Harper is a vote for George Bush the III. I guess I have to vote liberal. Thanks PC’s! Keep the faith NDP and BLOC .. a party that prints it’s own money should at least be able to remain solvent!
I agree with you Denis. We can’t afford a conservative government. There is just something about harper’s smile that doesn’t look genuine… Definitely voting Liberal!
Its time for a change, the liberals have been in power too long ang one can tell with all the scandals and lies. My vote is for Mr Harper and this is not a vote for George Bush III Denis. The last time I looked into it Mr Harper was canadian and he is running in Canada .Also their is no proof that a Harper government would be like the one of Mr Bush or that it would sympathize with them, get over it. Change is upon us and the best choice is Conservative
the thing people have to realise is that the conservative party is not the old PC party it is the radical Alliance party. Just because a party changes it name, it doesn’t change it policies. People didn’t vote for the alliance because of their radical views, so why should they vote for the conservatives. They haven’t changed. All the alliance Mp are now running under the conservative banner, nothing has changed. I just hope the people in Ontario are smarter than the average westerner Albertan.
If Harper will win, things will get worst. It will not be good for many Canadian people. Tax cut means cutting public services and that includes heallt care. History will repeat itself. It will be like an old time – when conservative were in Power.
Whatever the US says Mr. Harper will do. If Bush tells Mr. Harper to kiss his ASS, by all mean he will do.
A Harper minority that lasts for two years would be great for the country. After the ensuing fiascos, conservative scandals the pendlum will swing to the left and maybe we’ll get some Greens and more NDP elected. Then we can get down to real business and save this country from lobby loving insiders.
Sadly, no matter who wins, less than half the country will be happy (once again). I don’t fear Mr.Harper- despite cries to the opposite, his views are not so markedly different than Prime Minister Martin’s. We have seen from the PM that he registers his companies offshore to avoid paying Canadian taxes, so we know that he is not as concerned about the public good as he claims. He uses private health clinics himself, so although he claims how critical public health is, he offers little insight into how to fix it. I don’t think that we should be concerned about the conservatives bowing down to George Bush- now bowing to Ralph Klein is something else…
I believe that once Stephen Harper gains a majority government that slowly, but surely, he will change the face of Canada. And, although I am only 17 years old, this is the world that I am just coming into. So seeing this change, and knowing the power that Stephen may hold with his buddy Bush, I don’t feel very happy about his platform. I mean, if I were to vote, it’d probably be with Liberals, and that would only be bcause they would be the official opposition if the Conservatives won. And if the Liberals weren’t going to be the official opposition, then I’d vote NDP or Western Bloc. I just can’t see what will happen with the Conservatives get the majority. Maybe it’s becuase of G. Bush, because I don’t like the idea of nuclear warheads, ballistics, in our country. After all, we are a nuclear free country. Then again, this may only stand for a couple more weeks. *sigh* Well. I don’t know what to do, I mean, I can’t do really anything now, can I?
I can’t seem to find where in the Conservative platform they mention that they’re going to arm Canada with nuclear-tipped ICBM’s. I doubt we could afford them. Who are we going to aim them at, China?
A change in government at this point is a good thing. The Conservatives will not get their majority and be able to propose fresh policy for the country. If the rest of the opposition feels that strongly about it, we will have another election. There are decent checks and balances in a minority government, so I doubt things will be radically changing all that quickly unless if you’re a Liberal in a plum government job.
I’m looking forward to see whether the Conservatives can follow through with their platform and not blow the Federal budget into deficit. The Liberals have loaded it up with so much useless spending over the past 5 years that they don’t leave the country much room to work with.
I just hope that everyone who says a vote for Harper is a vote for Bush can realize that they obviously have been listening too much to the same Liberal Party who told you they were not corrupt. Harper simply wants to unify Canada. The wealthier western provinces with the struggling Maritime provinces. This all while putting Ontario under reigns. Alberta produces more wealth than any combination of three provinces in Canada, but do to Federal taxation and programs, all the money made by the west, is wasted by the east.
Harper may not be the best leader we’ve ever seen, but we can do without the immature outbursts of Layton, the lies of Martin and the treacherous separatist attitude of the Bloc.
Canada’s been having a really fun time these past 12 years riding the downslope of this rollercoaster known as regression. Maybe we should go back to climbing up again while the U.S. is crippled by it’s own stubborn attitude that the most powerful nation in the world needs a war to spark the economy.
War however(thought I don’t support it) will send Canada into a a huge boom of economy since Harper supports rebuilding our military.
But that’s just me. I just read into the issues more than anyone I know.