BC Election 2005: Debate notes

Posted in Politics on May 4th, 2005 by Sacha Peter

Here is a copy of my RAW election notes, only corrected for spelling. Here we go!


Debates notes:

Vaughn Palmer introduced leaders.. the smiles that came out of all of their mouths were SO forced it was funny. Tension, tension!!

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Topic: Economy – Jim Bean – People using food banks risen, homelessness increased. Why has everybody not been able to participate in gains?

Introductions were boring canned responses.

Follow-up with Carr – Why is it time to change political leadership in BC?

Free-for-all:
Campbell – slammed NDP on previous 10 years
James – Attributes to commodity prices.. ICBC, Hydro in public hands..
James wanted Campbell to speak, but Carr interrupted, giving Campbell time to think (mistake).
Carr – Big on ‘small business’, ‘sustainable’, etc.. POWER-EX! Wow.

Rebuttals were boring canned responses.

I’d give this one to Carr, slightly. James is trying to corner Campbell on something that isn’t quite relevant to the topic. She might have shot her bullets too early.

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Topic: Healthcare
Keith Baudry – 1991 5.5B, 33% budget. 12B, 44% budget. Cannot be sustained, what changes (fundamental, structure, reforms, philosophy) can be made?

Canned responses were boring – they didn’t have anything innovative at all!

Campbell looked pretty weak on his.

Follow-up – Private sector involvement. Labour government in UK is getting involved. What is the NDP doing regards to this?
James – Will end private healthcare. More expensive (17%, Masters Univ. study)

Free-for-all:
Carr – NDP started on road (Cambie Surgical Clinic, WCB cases).
James – “over the last 4 years…” seniors saying they’re worse than years ago. Explain to seniors about breaking commitment for beds.
Campbell – About upgrading facilities, clearly stalling for time
James – “Leadership is about making choices and keeping promises, you broke your promises to Seniors.. how do you explain it to “Casey”, 88 years in Golden, moved to Burnaby”.. clearly going for a score here.
Carr – about privatization, do you think people in BC are better off in terms of HEU workers being privizated, food, laundry, etc. Cost them 15% in wages, pay equity in women.
Campbell – Public-private, Abbotsford, 12th and Oak, saving $x million.

Rebuttals were boring canned responses.

I’d give this one to Campbell and James, they said stuff for their supporters and wouldn’t be able to attract swing voters.

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Topic: Education – Karen So

ESL cuts, counseling cuts, special needs cuts.. this was a tough question to listen to, her accent was horrible. I’m guessing it had to do with increasing funding to various aspects of education. (so far, these three topics could be 100% anticipated by the candidates.. come on panelists, talk about something interesting!!)

Introductions were boring canned responses.

Follow-up – (Karen So is nervous!!) Librarians cut 23%.. in current platform, want to make BC most literate in province. How can you do this when cutting libraries?

Free-for-all: Campbell continues on..
James – Achievement has gone up due to school boards. Despite lack of leadership, yes increased funding, but downloaded school boards forced them to cut. Resources aren’t there. In 1999 said in leg. that BC Libs would not close schools, etc.
Campbell – Has talked to trustees, they want to be able to make their own decisions. Elected schoolboards are best people to make decisions.
James – “I’ve been there”, i know tough choices, etc. And choices were to cut programs.
Carr – James is right, forced them (boards) to cut into tears, whether ESL, libraries, or whatever. School system deserves money. It’s $320M compared to 2001.
Campbell – Not correct. e.g. special needs kids – increasing $28M this year.
James – People expect 4 years of education investment, not just during election. No accountability.
Campbell – Increased funding for education every year.

Rebuttals were boring canned responses. Theme seems to be James “broken promises”. Campbell “unions right to strike vs. students right to learn”, heh.. promises and unions!

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Topic: Public Safety

Alan Wong to Campbell – Drug related crimes are spreading like wildfire.

Critics are saying lack of funding to drug centres. Why has BC Libs ignored treatment and prevention?

Introductions were boring canned responses. Campbell strayed off topic.
Carr looked particularly bad here, she had to refer to her notes frequently.

If she was honest, she’d probably say “I couldn’t give a crap”.

Follow-up: To Carr, BC has lowest police per-capita in the country, but records of drug-related crimes. Is there a need to increase police?

Carr – answered “yes”, obviously. Court systems need to be helped. Proposed decriminalization of Marijuana! (Federal thing)

Free-for-all: James – why cut councilors for victims of crime.
Campbell – Agreed with Green Party about root causes. Task force on addiction, mental services, $250M in direct services that need help, etc.
James – “another task force on crime”. Another task force on teachers and librarians. No actions! Cut crown prosecutors budgets.
Campbell – 215 police, first nations, communities, large communities, traffic fine measures, $250M in mental illnesses, etc. (sounds like the script).
Carr – silent!
James – in government for 4 years, on topic of crime, prosecutors, support for addiction, community policing for 3 years. when close to election, following through, not a commitment.
Carr – Agreed with Campbell, NDP did cut mental services. Deinsttutionalized mental patients now on the streets.

Rebuttals were boring canned responses.

I’d give this one to nobody.

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Topic: Environment

Natalie Clancy – Four major highway and bridge projects (port mann), more cars in lower mainland. Green platform will cancel all mega-transport projects. What do you say to all people that have to drive more than an hour to the lower mainland?

Introductions were boring canned responses. Carr was heavy on public transportation. James was middle of road. Campbell was about RAV, move both goods and people. This turned into a transportation topic instead of the environment! All canned.

Follow-up: To James, protecting environment involves tradeoffs. Are willing to sacrifice 100-1000s of jobs in fish farming. What do you say?

James – Leadership is needed in fish farms. Put forward a plan, transition to protect technology and jobs, there can be both and protect wild stocks with leadership to show it.

Free-for-all: Carr – Cap on number of fish farms, in 1990′s, except doubled capacity. to Campbell – free reign all over the coast. This is putting wild stocks at risk.
James – will work with industry, etc (she really should have said “that was the NDP of the 1990′s.. I’m part of the NDP in the 21st century!!.. she needs to distance herself from 1990s!!”)
Campbell – NDP brought in aquaculture in 1990s. Response was mainly generic.
Carr – Sea lice has put whole salmons at risk. Needed is wild fishery investment. That is future.
James – Will protect wild fish stocks. Environmental protection slashed, conservation officers, cut, etc.
Carr – You cut 22%. Campbell cut 30%.. between two of you 53% conservation staff.
Campbell – we’ve added conservation, invested in nechacko basin and somewhere else..

Rebuttals were boring canned responses.

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(final) Topic: Leadership

Moira Mclean – NDP has been trying to distance with Labour.. BCGEU, teacher’s union. How can she balance this and shape the perception of the shape of labour.. (can this be a more BC Liberal-friendly topic???)

Introductions were REALLY boring canned responses. Carr.. “… and our children”, oh god. Electoral reform – Carr did get a mention about the citizen’s assembly in and thanked Campbell for it. (About freaking time!)

Follow-up: Trust. Campbell – you broke some promises, can you blame people for not trusting you?

Free-for-all:
James – Leadership is about doing what you say, taking responsibility.
Campbell – “I agree”
James – Which promises did you break, which should they believe now? Is it about gambling, BC Rail, etc.
Campbell – When lay out platform, they try to accomplish everything. They chose to accomplish it. Unlike NDP “the NDP made promises they had no intention of keeping”. About BC rail… blah blah, stalling for time.
James – Nobody talked in BC about BC Rail.
Campbell – New opportunities, etc etc.
James – 990 year lease.
Carr – Vision – a province better for people. Campbell did make a promise to a commitment about the ??? rainforest in the central coast.. communities together,failed to do so (what?).. time for answer.
Campbell – will consulting with first nations. Real stake in long term future of mid coast, continue to work with them.

Rebuttals were boring canned responses. Why the hell is Carr still talking about fossil fuels and raw logs? Who the hell is she trying to get votes from?

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Closing statements:

THEY WERE ALL CANNED.

James – Election is about trust. Cuts for blah blah. Will work with people, invest with seniors, healthcare, etc. Yada yada yada.
Campbell – Privilege to serve as Premier. Time to set goals ahead. Vision is to be most educated, healthiest, etc.
Carr – Election about the BC you want. Sustainable economy, healthcare system, clean environment. Do you trust them to take care of the environment, sustainable path, in best interest of children, etc. Had to refer to notes yet AGAIN!

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General impression: They all SUCKED. Carr failed to deliver a knockout punch, Campbell didn’t do anything stupid (but certainly didn’t look good either since he was on the defensive practically the whole time), and James sounded like a whiner.


More detailed analysis coming up later.

BC Election 2005: Pre-debate market numbers

Posted in Commentary on May 4th, 2005 by Sacha Peter

This is purely for reference, approximately one hour before the provincial debate.

Seats market (actual seats in parenthesis):
BC Liberals – Bid 59.2%, Ask 61.5% (46.8/48.6)
NDP – Bid 37.6%, Ask 39.8% (29.7/31.4)
Other – Bid 0.9%, Ask 1.3% (0.7/1.0)

Popular Vote
BC Liberals – Bid 43.5%, Ask 45.7%
NDP – Bid 37.0%, Ask 38.0%
Green – Bid 13.1%, Ask 15.1%
Other – Bid 5.2%, Ask 5.8%

Majority Government
BC Liberals – Bid 88.1%, Ask 89.5%
NDP – Bid 10.0%, Ask 13.5%
Other – Bid 1.0%, Ask 2.0%

Referendum Market
Passes – Bid 40.0%, Ask 43.2%
Fails – Bid 58.1%, Ask 65.9%

Comments
The people that leave bids and asks up in the marketplace during the debate should get their brains checked unless if they are in front of their computers. I doubt the referendum will get much mention during the debate (other than a single question by the panelists), so I think the most volatility in the marketplace will be seen in the “Other” market for seats – as I pointed our earlier, Adriane Carr has the most to gain out of this debate. I’ll have post-debate reaction (in addition to the marketplace) after. Generally speaking, if Campbell doesn’t screw up, the Liberal majority government contract will be a lock and should probably be paid up to 95%.

Finally, I’ve heard a lot in the news that Paul Ramsey (ex-NDP hack in Prince George who is one of Carole James’ advisors) is telling the media not to expect a knockout blow – that if you’re expecting to see a fight you should go to a boxing match. Can anybody be more obvious about trying to downplay expectations? You can be sure that Carole James will be trying to get a “Gordon Wilson” moment.

BC Election 2005: Let’s go to sleep

Posted in Politics on May 3rd, 2005 by Sacha Peter

So far the first two (formal) weeks of the BC election have been quite dull. The strategies have been textbook by all parties involved – the BC Liberals wish to take as few risks as possible to preserve their majority government status. The NDP isn’t treading too far on the left hand side, which will assure them 25 seats and opposition status, while the Green party is spending their entire campaign fighting in Vancouver Island and the Powell River-Sunshine Coast riding (Adriane Carr’s riding).

There have been no scandals worth mentioning, and no “new” mud thrown by the NDP on Campbell that we haven’t heard already. The BC Liberals have been keeping to a script in tightly controlled situations, which exposes them to little risk. In other words, this has been the most boring campaign that I can remember in recent memory.

This might change, however, with the leader’s debate on May 3, at 7:00pm. If Carole James is going to win the election, it has to start on that night. I don’t think she will, simply for the reason that she and Adriane Carr look too alike. Picture Campbell placed between Carr and James and you’ll have the public just as polarized as they usually are. The general plan of attack for all three candidates will look like this:

Gordon Campbell – Put emphasis on provincial accomplishments over the past 4 years; attack the NDP on what they did when they were in office. This is nearly analogous to Ronald Reagan’s 1984 election campaign strategy – ask the people in the province “Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?”. If he does that, this election is over (as if it wasn’t already).

Carole James – Carole has to be able to capitalize on any mistake that Campbell makes. I don’t think he will, but James has to pick up on it in lightning speed. James would do well by suggesting SOLUTIONS to existing issues (healthcare beds, etc.) and not just stick to the 5-second sound-bites of “let’s hire 1000 teachers” or something logistically that requires brains to perform. Carole James also has to appear human, which clearly all candidates appear to be lacking right now.

Adriane Carr – It’s easy for her – appeal as much as possible to the people on Vancouver Island, and try not to look like a big left-wing environmental radical. The other challenge is not to look like Carole James. Carr’s got the most to win in this debate – specifically her own seat in the Legislature.

The one person that is guaranteed to be screwed in this debate is Tom Morino, the leader of the DRBC party. The media snubbing of his presence in this debate is going to guarantee his party will not win a single seat this election.

My take is that Campbell is too experienced to do something stupid this debate – if Carole James had some information up her sleeve that would really shake Campbell it would make things interesting, but I doubt she’d have the balls to go negative on the BC Liberals at this stage. Certainly if James decided to bring up drinking and driving it would make things entertaining at least. This debate is looking like it will be more important for the Green party than anybody else.