Easy Presidential Election Bets
Some semi-speculative bets I’ve been making in preparation for the election: Bush to take Colorado (Bush at 71%), Kerry to take Michigan (Bush at 23%), Kerry to take Maine (Bush at 20%).
Safe bets: Democrats to NOT sweep the house, senate and presidency: trading at 9% right now; Kerry to take Washington state (Bush at 9%).
Riskier, but probable: Republicans to keep the Senate (68%).
Very risky relative to what a ‘safe bet’ is: Kerry to take New Hampshire (Bush at 43%), Bush to win the presidency (56%).
I’ll be putting some of the speculative online gambling capital into these bets, and then put a high portion of it in the relatively safe bet (specifically the Democrats not to sweep all three bodies of government). I’ll have a few token dollars on Bush to win the presidency, but not nearly as much as I was originally thinking when doing my research into this topic. There’s probably going to be a huge last-minute smear in the media which will be difficult to predict.